March 12 (Bloomberg) -- The fatal shootings of 16 Afghan civilians, allegedly by an American soldier, add to a series of incendiary incidents that threaten to drain remaining U.S. and European support for the decade-long mission.
In Afghanistan, the deadly attack also may reinforce Afghan suspicions that foreigners are seeking to conquer their Islamic country. They may conclude the U.S.-led coalition will end up leaving in defeat just as have outsiders from Alexander the Great to the British to the Soviet Union.
"This is a major setback," said Seth Jones, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corp. in Arlington, Virginia, who worked for the U.S. Special Operations Command in Afghanistan last year. Beyond influencing Afghan attitudes, he said yesterday in an interview, "it undermines certainly U.S. trust of the Afghans because I'm sure there are going to be concerns about the local reaction."
Any violent backlash by Afghans to the shootings in the southern province of Kandahar may add to domestic pressure on President Barack Obama to speed troop withdrawals, ahead of the the security handover now set for 2014. Asked yesterday on CBS's "Face the Nation" if it's time to withdraw U.S. forces, Republican presidential contender Newt Gingrich said, "I think it is."
In offering condolences to Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta expressed resolve to continue to "work hand in hand with our Afghan partners," according to a statement from his office.
2014 Timetable
Two U.S. officials said the killings may prove to be the fatal hit to the administration's hopes for maintaining a large international military and civilian presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014. That plan is intended to improve the performance of the Afghan government, degrade the Taliban and strengthen Afghan security forces.
Whether that's the case will depend on how Afghan civilians, government officials and security forces respond to the killings, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they aren't authorized to discuss the matter publicly. This incident follows the burning of Korans in a trash dump at a U.S. base last month and a video in January showing at least four U.S. Marines urinating on Taliban corpses.
If Afghan anger, frustration, and resentment of foreigners turns violent as it did after the Koran burning, whatever political and public support remains in America and Europe for the NATO mission in Afghanistan will almost certainly dissipate, both officials said.
Administration Divisions
Already, Vice President Joe Biden and some White House officials have been pressing for a faster exit from Afghanistan, according to the officials. CIA Director David Petraeus, a former NATO commander there, and some U.S. military officials have been arguing that there's been progress and that a hasty exit would open the door to the Taliban's return and perhaps to a new civil war, the officials said.
The U.S. soldier allegedly shot to death 16 Afghan civilians in their homes before returning to his base and being taken into custody, Afghan and NATO officials said. The soldier, whose name was withheld by U.S. authorities, is from Joint Base Lewis-McChord, near Tacoma, Washington, said one official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to comment publicly.
Statements of condolences yesterday from Obama and a reassuring message from the acting U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan posted on YouTube clashed with photos linked on Twitter of the victims, who included women and children.
Whatever trust and credibility remained between the U.S. and the Afghans after last month's burning of Korans at the main American base in Afghanistan probably is gone after this latest attack, said David Cortright, director of policy studies at the University of Notre Dame's Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies.
'Fatal Hammer Blow'
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