Rick Santorum's wins in Mississippi and Alabama may have done more damage to Newt Gingrich than to front-runner Mitt Romney.
Santorum affirmed his status last night as Romney's main challenger, leaving Gingrich to talk not of winning the Republican presidential nomination through primaries, but rather of a contested national convention in August.
"Right now, Gingrich couldn't be doing more to help Mitt Romney if he was a paid campaign worker for Mitt Romney," said Richard Land, president of the Nashville, Tennessee-based Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission. "He should have dropped out a good while ago."
For Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, the two losses foreshadow a long and potentially bitter fight for the nomination.
Almost a year into Romney's second presidential run, the results once again stoked doubts about his ability to connect with the social conservatives and evangelical Christians who make up the backbone of the Republican Party.
And more than two months into primary voting, Santorum's victories guarantee another hostile showdown next week -- this time in Illinois (USUSIL), where recent polls show a tightening race.
While Santorum is eager for that contest to be a head-to- head battle with Romney, Gingrich's presence in the race continues to deny him that opportunity.
Fighting Until Florida
Speaking to supporters in Birmingham, Alabama, Gingrich vowed to remain in the campaign, saying he would fight all the way to the party's national convention in Tampa, Florida.
Still, with victories in only South Carolina (PCSTSC) and Georgia, the former Georgia congressman and U.S. House speaker now faces a struggle for his political survival.
At his victory party in Lafayette, Louisiana, Santorum came closer than ever to calling on Gingrich to end his candidacy.
"The time is now for conservatives to pull together," he told cheering supporters gathered in a hotel ballroom. "The time is now to make sure that we have the best chance to win this election."
Evangelicals made up the biggest bloc of the electorate in both the Mississippi and Alabama contests, with almost four in five voters identifying themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians and about three-quarters saying it mattered at least somewhat that a candidate shares their religious beliefs, according to exit polls.
'Take a Knee'
Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator and a Catholic, won the backing of those voters in both states. At an election night celebration, a supporter asked the crowd to "take a knee" and pray for victories as they waited for the final results.
Santorum's wins came even though he was outspent once again by Romney. Of the 7,138 broadcast advertisements that aired in the two states in the past 30 days, 64 percent came from Romney or his political action committee, 21 percent were from Gingrich or his super-PAC, and 15 percent were from Santorum's super-PAC, according to data from New York-based Kantar Media's CMAG, which tracks advertising.
As the polls closed, Santorum seemed confident about his chances, listening to a tribute song posted by supporters on YouTube as he ate dinner with his wife.
After addressing his election night party, Santorum flew to Puerto Rico to woo Latino voters before a March 18 contest there.
New Opportunity
From there, he heads to Illinois, where Santorum aides say they hope his latest wins will create a new opportunity for their campaign in a state where Romney has been favored.
A Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll released over the weekend showed Romney backed by 35 percent of likely voters and Santorum by 31 percent, within the 4-percentage-point margin of error.
Even with last night's victories, Santorum still faces a significant mathematical challenge.
His victories were minimal in terms of picking up delegates for the nomination, garnering him at least 27. Gingrich picked up at least 20 delegates and Romney at least 18.
The partial allocation of delegates from the primary states left Romney with 472, putting him closest to winning the 1,144 needed to capture the nomination. Santorum had 244, Gingrich 127 and Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who finished fourth in both Alabama and Mississippi, 47.
To have a chance at the nomination, Santorum would have to win big majorities of the remaining delegates up for grabs.
'Win for Romney'
"Any day with contests that passes that Santorum and Gingrich don't cut into Romney's lead is a win for Romney," said Josh Putnam, a campaigns and elections specialist at Davidson College in North Carolina.
The next few weeks offer few chances for either Santorum or Gingrich to beat Romney, with races in New York, Maryland and other Northeastern states likely to favor the former Massachusetts (USUSMASS) governor.
To catch up, Santorum's campaign plans to rely on picking up uncommitted delegates allocated in caucuses and converting those already bound to Gingrich, according to an internal memo leaked by the campaign earlier this week.
That strategy would force a decision at the party's August convention, creating the possibility of a bruising internal fight less than three months before the general election.
"The longer this plays out, the more we move away from a contested race to a contentious race, and that's not one that can heal itself at a convention," said Putnam. "I don't see it as a positive for the party."
To contact the reporter on this story: Lisa Lerer in Washington at llerer@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service — if this is your content and you're reading it on someone else's site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers. Five Filters recommends: Donate to Wikileaks.
No comments:
Post a Comment